Research on New Ideas of Comprehensive Traffic Demand Analysis Techniques and Methods

摘要

There are several misunderstand dings in the current forecasting methods of integrated traffic demand in China, seriously impacting on the forecasting accuracy of integrated traffic demand. Starting from systems theory and the adaptive theory of traffic and economic development and combined with characteristics of integrated transportation demand, this paper proposes the innovative thinking of the analytical techniques and methods of integrated traffic demand in the future and the forecasting methods of integrated passenger and cargo transport demand as well as the model approach of the structure forecasting of transport demand. Finally, it comes to the conclusion that the analysis and forecasting of integrated transport demand should focus on the adaptation of integrated transport and economic and social development and the application of systems theory approach to carry on innovation. Integrated transport demand forecasting is a basic work of the integrated transport planning, And its forecast accuracy largely determines whether the development of integrated transport planning is reasonable and effective. At present, there is no good way for the forecasting of integrated traffic demand in China, which is mainly due to misunderstandings in this field. This paper aims to clarify these misunderstandings and propose innovative thinking and direction for the forecasting method of the integrated transport demand.