Analyzing the driving effect of influence factors on CO_2 emissions using the STIRPAT model in Tianjin of China

摘要

This paper discusses how much the driving effect on CO_2 emissions caused by every influence factor in Tianjin of China. Based on STIRPAT model, the elasticity coefficient of the population (P), the affluence (A), the urbanization rate (UR) and the technological level (T) is 0.14, 1.55, 0.49 and -1.25. Combined the change rate of each influence factors 1995-2008 and the elasticity coefficient, the analysis shows that A, UR and P increase the amount of CO_2 emissions, T decreases the amount of CO_2 emissions, the size of influence factors' driving effect on CO_2 emission in Tianjin is A>T>UR>P every year, overall CO_2 emissions shows a growing trend. Achieving the carbon emission reduction target is very hard, therefore, changing the economy dependence on energy consumption development mode and improving technology level are the most important way for CO_2 emissions reduction in Tianjin of China.