基于STIRPAT模型的中国二氧化碳排放影响因素动态冲击效应分析

摘要

Based on the STIRPAT model, it is determined that the influencing factors of the carbon emission are population, per capita GDP and the level of technology. The VAR model is used to estimate the dynamic impact effect of China’s carbon emission influencing factors from 1978 to 2011. The results show that the stable dynamic relationship exists between the carbon dioxide emission, population, per capita GDP and technical level. Per capita GDP and the technical level of carbon dioxide emission always plays a positive impact effect. The population first has a negative impact effect, and then a positive impact effect. In the short term, the contribution of carbon emission and GDP per capita is greater, but in the long term, the population growth is the greatest factor.%　　基于STIRPAT模型，确定二氧化碳排放的影响因素是人口数量、人均GDP和技术水平。本文采用VAR模型估计了中国1978-2011年间中国二氧化碳排放影响因素动态冲击效应。研究结果发现，二氧化碳排放和人口、人均GDP、技术水平之间存在稳定的动态影响关系。人均GDP、技术水平始终对二氧化碳排放起着正向冲击效应。人口因素先对二氧化碳排起着负向冲击效应，而后起着正向冲击效应。短期内自身和人均GDP的贡献率较大，长期来看，人口增长的贡献率最大。