An Approach for Short Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Based on Genetic Neural Network

摘要

In this paper, genetic neural network is applied to forecast the short-term traffic flow and traffic guidance. Because of the factors of time correlation and spatial correlation, we construct the short-term traffic flow forecasting model using back-propagation neural network that has the function of arbitrary nonlinear function approximation. In order to find proper initial values of the neural network weights and threshold quickly, a combination of neural network prediction method is presented. This method utilizes genetic algorithm to choose the initial weights and threshold, and uses L-M algorithm to train sample, which can enhance the global convergence rate. Trained network is used for short-term traffic flow prediction with mean square error as the forecast performance evaluation. The results show that the performance of genetic neural network is better than a separate BP neural network for short-term traffic flow prediction.