Simulation of The Delayed Effect of Credit Risks in Enterprise Group Based on Multi-agent

摘要

The enterprise group is a complex system. It will take the advantage of its equity structure to delay the exposure of the credit risks by some "shattering" behaviors when its benefit conflict with the benefit of the bank. To solve this problem, adding the multi-agent simulation into the research of the credit risks of the enterprise group and hoping to provide some new research ideas. The research which is based on the NetLogo and the CAS theory analyze the relationship between enterprise group's various factors and the delayed effect and model the emergence of the delayed effect of credit risks. Study shows that the scale of the enterprise group and the cash flow stability will affect the strength of delayed effects of the credit risks of the enterprise group.