4.8 Tropospheric Ozone in Regional Climate-Air Quality Simulations over Europe: Future Climate and Sensitivity Analysis

摘要

In this work we present results of regional climate-air quality simulations over Europe performed for the future decade 2041-2050 (2040s) and the control decade 1991-2000 representative of the present climate. Summer ozone mostly decreases in the mid-century decade by about 0.8-1.2 ppb over continental Europe and the Mediterranean Basin, with the exception of the Balkan Peninsula, Adriatic and Black Sea and southern Iberian Peninsula in the area around Gibraltar, where average surface ozone increases by about 0.5-0.8 ppb. Ozone decrease can be mainly attributed to decreasing incoming solar radiation, which is mostly seen over France, England and northern continental Europe. Average temperature increases in the southern and northern parts of Europe, but not more than 1 K, and remains unchanged or even slightly decreases over France and England. Temperature change spatial patterns follow closely the changes in atmospheric circulation as indicated by 500 hPa geopotential high differences. Biogenic emissions follow temperature and radiation changes, thus increasing in Mediterranean countries and decreasing over northern Europe. However, sensitivity studies in our simulations suggest that ozone formation is not sensitive to organic compounds of biogenic origin, therefore, changes in biogenic emissions due to climate change do not impact on surface ozone.