Knowledge-based Prediction and Evaluation of Highway Networks Planning

摘要

A knowledge-based prediction and evaluation system (KBPEs) for highway networks development planning is put forward, which is a decision support for transportation government. Firstly, the architecture of KBPEs is presented, and then with an example of Weihai city, the paper goes into more detail about how the system works. After analyzing current highway networks of Weihai city and concluding some factors that hold back transportation development, social and economic indexes (population, GDP) are predicted according to the statistics with the historical data. The regression formula among highway networks, national economy and population is presented. Furthermore, future highway networks are reasonably predicted quantitatively and qualitatively so as to meet the requirement of local social and economic development. According to the highway networks development planning of Weihai city, the total highway scale will reach to 2600 km in 2015, 3000 km in 2020 and about 3500 km in 2030. Finally, from the point of technical performance, besides macro-economy and social benefit, the paper gives evaluation of the adaptability of predicted highway networks in Weihai City.