Statistical Extrapolation for Evaluation of Probability of Large Roll

摘要

An estimate of the probability of occurrence of a large roll angle is a very useful measure of the risk of partial stability failure of a ship. The procedure for evaluating such a probability is useful both in the design process and in the development of operational guidance. This paper discusses and compares several different methods of statistical extrapolation suitable for estimating the probability of large roll events. The methods are based on time domain analysis of numerical simulation or model test records and include upcrossing theory, extreme value theory, peaks-over the threshold and envelope peak over the threshold.