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The Development of Ensemble Prediction System in WHIHR

机译:WHIHR中集合预测系统的开发

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@@ A Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system is under development by perturbing initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions based on a regional model, AREM (Advanced Regional Eta Model), which has 11 members in 37km horizontal resolution over China. Two strategies in perturbing IC were compared to examine an optimal approach in building a regional ensemble prediction system (EPS): one is directly applying perturbations from a global EPS to the regional EPS(a downscaling of a global EPS,Sch-l), and another is generating own perturbations by the regional model itself(BGM,Sch-2). The following four results can be seen.(l) By evaluating ensemble spread and probabilistic forecasts, it shows that the "Sch-2" seems to be superior to the "Sch_l" in this preliminary study (Fig.1).(2) No matter what IC perturbation strategies were applied,ensemble-based forecasts, ensemble mean and probabilistic forecasts, are in general outperform single control and operational forecast. (3) The ensemble spread and forecast skill are positively correlated quite well on domain average,the spatial correlation between spread and forecast error is about 40-45% on average.
机译:通过基于区域模型的初始条件和横向边界条件,AREM(高级地区ETA模型)扰动初始条件和横向边界条件,@@短程集合预测系统正在开发,并在中国拥有37公里的横向分辨率。比较了扰动IC中的两种策略,以检查建立区域集合预测系统(EPS)的最佳方法:一个直接从全球EPS扰动到区域EPS(全球EPS,SCH-L的缩小)和另一个是通过区域模型本身(BGM,SCH-2)产生自己的扰动。可以看到以下四个结果。(l)通过评估集合差和概率预测,表明“Sch-2”似乎优于该初步研究中的“SCH_L”(2)无论应用IC扰动策略,基于集合的预测,集合均值和概率预测,都是普遍优异的单一控制和运营预测。 (3)集合传播和预测技能在域平均水平方面具有正相关,展开和预测误差之间的空间相关性平均约为40-45%。

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