HANDLING UNCERTAINTY IN WATER RESOURCE OPTIMISATION

摘要

Due to the range and variation of water demands within any mining operation, the calculation, management, and optimisation of water-use can be a complex task. With multiple variables operating with often unpredictable or complex behavior, a formal process of water balancing and risk assessment is essential. This paper describes a number of water balance methods that can be used to represent the mine water management. The advantages and disadvantages of a simple spreadsheet approach are compared to more complex stochastic models, and with respect to input requirements, design time, process representation, outputs and predictive capacity. The ability of a stochastic-type model to assess the impact climatic variation is assessed using rainfall and evaporation summary statistics from humid-temperate, tropical-humid and semi-arid environments. Although employed within a course-scale comparison, it is concluded that the stochastic features within risk-analysis type software can provide an excellent tool for mine water managers to characterise the site water balance, identify potential risks and optimise water use. This approach may also be used to represent the potential impact of climate change on mining activities.