SYSTEM DYNAMICS ANALYSIS OF URBAN RAIL TRANSIT'S EFFECT ON PRIVATE VEHICLE OWNERSHIP: A CASE STUDY OF BEIJING CITY

摘要

A complex system dynamics model, termed as BeijingSD, focusing on the effect of urban rail transit on private vehicle ownership is presented for the effective regulation of private vehicles in Beijing. By converting component-level knowledge into system behavior simulation, BeijingSD integrates information feedbacks that govern interactions of public traffic, economical, social and environmental factors, thus can present reasonable predictive results for policy-making on sustainable transport development.Based on scenario analyses with dynamical simulation, suggestions on promoting sustainable development of private vehicles through the guidance of urban rail transit are put forward.