Risk evaluation and risk prevention countermeasure of developing missile weapons

摘要

In this paper, a systematized method of risk evaluation based on the independent third party is presented to deal with the risk evaluation problem in developing missile weapon. Firstly, the risk factors in developing missile weapon are identified and analyzed. It concluded that the technology risk, performance risk, cost risk, schedule risk and management risk are five main risk factors in developing missile weapon. Secondly, an index system of risk evaluation is proposed based on these five risk factors, and a risk assessment model based on AHP is presented to choose the optimal developer. Finally, for the problem of how to avoid and reduce risks in the steps of demonstrating, schemes, production, researching and service, several risk prevention countermeasures are given from the perspective of the independent third party.