Agent-Based Simulation Approach for Managing Communicative Competence in Public Emergence Event

摘要

In recent years, unconventional emergencies occur frequently, which results in severe harm to our national economy and people's life. The ensuing public panic also caused growing public concern. We take Songhua River water pollution as a case to analyze panic diffusion from an information communication aspect. In this paper we classify information based on its risk characteristic and propose several hypotheses. We further construct an Agent-based simulation model of public panic diffusion in a social network environment. Public behavior and panic diffusion is simulated and analyzed according to the information announced by the government. Results show great effectiveness that the model can simulate the impact of government actions and give verification of the hypothesis. This model is also helpful for government to predict public panic condition in other similar cases and provide a theoretical basis for government's emergency management.