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UNCERTAINTY MODELING WITH IMPRECISE STATISTICAL REASONING AND THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE IN DECISION MAKING

机译:不精确统计推理的不确定性建模与决策中的预防原则

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A number of unconventional formal approaches to decision making have been developed to provide mathematical foundations for rational choices under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. They challenge a central assumption of the Bayesian theory, that uncertainty should always be gauged by a single (additive) measure, and values should always be gauged by a precise utility function [3]. Decision-making theorists have presented approaches for arriving at rational decisions in spite of imprecision and indeterminacy [4-8, 10]. This paper introduces the theory of upper and lower previsions, provides examples, discusses how to account for unreliable statistical judgements, and reviews the relationships between the Precautionary Principle, indecision, and imprecise statistical reasoning.
机译:已经制定了许多非传统的决策方法,为杀菌和认识性不确定性提供了合理选择的数学基础。他们挑战贝叶斯理论的核心假设,即应始终通过单个(添加剂)测量仪表衡量不确定性,并且应始终通过精确的效用功能测量值[3]。决策理论家尽管有不精确和不确定,但是展示了到达理性决策的方法[4-8,10]。本文介绍了上下实际和下降的理论,提供了例子,讨论如何考虑不可靠的统计判断,并审查预防原则,犹豫不决和不精确统计推理之间的关系。

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