Nonlinear Effects of Weather on U.S. Crop Yields, Implications for Climate Change, and Why These Effects Matter for Developing Countries

摘要

In developing countries,... as much as a third of GNP and half the population currently depends on agriculture. They may still be vulnerable to climate change for many years to come. In developing nations, the share of agricultural goods constitutes asignificant share of domestic income. Thus, Schelling argues, the impacts of climate change will likely weigh more heavily on the developing world, while the costs of curbing climate change will likely fall more heavily on developed nations like the United States, engendering a difficult bargaining problem. Although Shelling's broad view about the split between relative costs and benefits is likely correct, active study and debate continue about the likely impacts of climate change on agricultural production, with a key focus being the United States.