Research on the application of Medical-meteorological forecast model of infectious diarrhea disease in Beijing

摘要

Based on the existing disease cases and the same period of the weather and climate data, the correlation between infectious diarrhea disease and meteorological factors are researched in this paper. Through multiple regression probability grade method, Medical-meteorological forecast grade (divided into 5 grades) and epidemic risk level evaluation model are established. The results showed that single correlation coefficient between disease and vapor pressure can reach 0.8340. Among all the forecast factors, variance contribution of vapor pressure account for 70.5%. Other important factors include average wind speed and temperature diurnal range. If we assume that the difference between forecast and actual grade smaller than ±1 is correct, the model has an average accuracy rate of 98.5%. And the completely consistent can be account for 62.9∼66.4%(six forecast aging). This model not only forecast the incidence of infectious diarrhea disease during Beijing Olympic Games, but also provided scientific basis for disease prevention and control center to guide people prevent infectious diarrhea.