The Conceptual Development of a Time Estimation Model to Predict Human Performance in Complex Environments

摘要

Time estimation is a fundamental behavioral characteristic used by all humans when completing task sequences in the real world. Properly characterizing the manner that humans engage in time-critical tasks, as well as the interaction among these tasks, is necessary when developing reliable computational models of human performance to be used to simulate real-world, human-system performance. The current paper introduces the notion of estimating time available, time required, and time onset to complete behaviors within real environmental contexts. It also summarizes relevant research on over- and under-estimating of time, and outlines critical factors - workload and windows of opportunity - that impact estimates of time. The paper culminates in the development of a new domain- and platform-independent conceptual model, dubbed TEMPORA, the Time Estimation Model for Predicting Onset, Required and Available time. The relationship between this conceptual model and the general requirements specifications for computational model development are highlighted.