Catastrophe Theory-Based Water Quality Evaluation Model Under Uncertain Environment, Case in Chaohu Lake

摘要

Water quality evaluation is an important item in water resource management. However, water quality evaluation is a complex system problem, fuzzy uncertainties and random uncertainties both exist in it. In this research, fuzzy random variables are employed to deal with the complex uncertainty. Then, according to the five essential features of water quality systems, a new model for water quality evaluation named catastrophe theory-based water quality evaluation model under uncertainty (CT-based WQEMU) was proposed. And, a new calculation method was designed to solve the model. The proposed model was applied to an actual case: Chaohu lake, China. According to the calculation results of the model, some analysis about the actual situation of water pollution in Chaohu lake was made. Then, the policy recommendations are provided to the local water management department.