FORECASTING DROUGHT AND HEATWAVE DURATION DURING THE GREEK WILDFIRES OF 2007

摘要

Growing experience with probabilistic weather forecasts for the medium range has generated interest in exploring applications out to one month ahead and longer. This paper investigates forecasts of risk related to the duration of periods of adverse weather. Examples addressing the risk of a) periods with heat wave conditions and b) periods without precipitation during the wildfires in Greece 2007 will be presented. The risk is derived from coupled long range forecast ensembles. The method can be applied for a range of other weather events, e.g. periods of temperature exceeding thresholds, for energy supply planning. The example product is derived at the Met Office from operational monthly ensemble forecasts. Initial forecast validation using a case study will be presented.