Remote sensing based land use/land cover change detection and drivers of change for the period 1964-2005 in Tigray, Ethiopia.

摘要

Land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics and their drivers of change in Tigray, Ethiopia were investigated for the period 1964-2005 using remotely sensed data and multiple logistic regression models. Within this period, agricultural land areas increased significantly (from 10percent in 1964 to 40percent in 2005) at the expense of natural vegetation (woodland and shrub land). The decline in woodland area was particularly significant (from 28percent in 1964 to 3percent in 2005) with the largest changes in the period before 1994. For Landsat TM based classification of 1994, overall accuracy and overall Kappa statistics were 77.45 and 70.45percent, respectively. The 2005 classification using Landsat ETM+ achieved an overall accuracy and Kappa statistics of 73.45 and 66.63percent, respectively. The results from multiple logistic regression show that anthropogenic drivers were the primary drivers for LULC change. Between 1964 and 1994 woodland areas were primarily reduced in remote areas, likely due to war, drought and famine, whereas in recent decades until 2005 reductions in woodland and expansion and intensification of agriculture were associated with road construction, settlement expansions and population pressure. The study provides an approach that can help to understand LULC changes in relation to their drivers in heterogeneous landscapes of tropical highlands.