The Impact of ICT on Health, Healthcare and Nursing in the Next 20 Years

摘要

In the world of informatics, 2020 is light years away, and it is a brave (or foolish) person who tries to look that far ahead. I recently came across a book that was published in 1977 - not really so long ago - called Science Fact: Astounding and Exciting Developments That Will Transform Your Life [1]. Among some other little gems it said: "By 1990, developments in technology will mean that most people will be working a 3 day week and will be retiring at the age of 40." As you may know, the UK government has just published proposals to raise the statutory pension age from 65 to 68 years. But the one I liked even better said: "The idea of everyone having a hand held or wristwatch sized transmitter and receiver to communicate with other people anywhere in the world is still in the realm of science fiction and unlikely ever to move out of it." I think that's what we would now call a mobile phone. I have recently been working as the only nurse member of a group set up by the Royal Society to consider "The impact of ICT on health and health care in the next decade". It was working in the mind-blowing company of six very prestigious professors of computer science and other experts such as the head of pervasive ICT research at BT (British Telecom) - people who know much more than I do about computers and ICT but who do not know so much about the daily realities of healthcare - that made me think about the perspective that I want to take today. It's not so much "How ICT will impact health, healthcare, and nursing over the next 20 years?" as "How can we use ICT to change healthcare to improve health?" My focus is on the challenges for nursing - one might even say the barriers that have to be overcome - as we journey towards the Promised Land.