Critical Energy Infrastructure Safety Assurance Strategies Considering Emergent Interaction Risk

摘要

Critical energy infrastructures (CEI) are the basis for the development of modern society. CEI consists of interacting systems that are integrated to implement the target function. There are interconnections between system safety states. Failures and accidents of CEI are characterized by the high severity of consequences. One of the causes of accidents (failures) in CEI is the imperfection of methods of risk analysis, in particular, not accounting for emergent risks (ER) associated with a negative interference between system safety states. There are two strategies for decreasing of ER in CEI: the use of diversity (off-line emergent risk management) and the reallocation of resources between systems (on-line emergent risk management). In this chapter, the problem of redistribution of CEI resources was formulated and two additional strategies to reduce ER were offered. The main difference between the offered strategies is based on individual preferences of CEI systems, in which redistribution takes into account (excludes) the capabilities of systems to decrease their ER and to ensure the required values of the safety indicators. In this article. the comparative analysis of the offered strategies was carried out.