Forecasting Electricity Prices with Historical Statistical Information using Neural Networks and Clustering Techniques

摘要

Factors such as uncertainty associated to fuel prices, energy demand and generation availability, are on the basis of the agents major concerns in electricity markets. Facing that reality, price forecasting has an increasing impact in agents' activity. The success on bidding strategies or on price negotiation for bilateral contracts is directly dependent on the accuracy of the price forecast. However, taking decisions based only on a single forecasted value is not a good practice in risk management. The work presented in this paper makes use of artificial neural networks to find the market price for a given period, with a certain confidence level. Historical information was used to train the neural networks and the number of neural networks used is dependent of the number of clusters found on that data. K-Means clustering method is used to find clusters. A study case with real data is presented and discussed in detail.