JAPAN/The Review of Economy Performance in 2004 Economic Outlook in 2005 and 2006

摘要

In 2004, the Japanese economy, with the exception of public investment, recovered at faster pace than in the previous year on the strength of firm demand, though growth tended to level off in the second half. This growth was brought about by firmly expanding private capital investment, especially in the field of high-technology, against the backdrop of rising exports, led by shipments to other Asian economies and the United States, and firm corporate profits. Another factor behind the recovery was that personal consumption trended upward as the improving employment environment helped revive consumer sentiment. As a result, Japan's real GDP for 2004 increased 2.7 percent, posting positive growth for the second consecutive year. In 2005, the recovery pace of exports and private capital investment, the economy's growth engines, will slow somewhat, causing the economy to decelerate. On the other hand, the world economy is expected to continue expanding, led by China's rapid economic growth, and companies will maintain an active investment stance to ensure their competitiveness. Given these assumptions, Japan's real GDP growth rate for 2005 is projected to be about 0.9 percent. However, it should be paid close attention to such factors as crude oil price and exchange rate fluctuations and economic prospects in the United States and China.