Housing Trends as an Indicator of Future Housing Stock and Energy Use: 1990 and 2001 RECS Comparisons

摘要

Characteristics of new homes, the presence and use of technology in these homes, as well as characteristics of the inhabitants can give an indication of the trends in future housing stock and the implications on present and future energy use. It would be ideal to characterize new housing as defined by homes built in 1999 - 2001 and compare these homes to the rest of the U.S. housing stock. However, new homes represent only 2 percent of the housing stock in 2001 as measured by the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), the latest household energy survey fielded by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It would be difficult to accurately compare the stock of new homes to any level of disaggregation since new homes sampled are limited--introducing large standard errors into the comparisons. Instead, using the 1990, 1993, 1997, and 2001 RECS, this paper examines changes in the housing stock including new housing in an attempt to obtain indications of trends in future housing stock and energy use. Comparisons include those characteristics most closely related to energy use such as type of housing unit, geographical location, size of the housing unit, number and type of appliances as well as usage and household characteristics. Other factors are considered such as the price of energy, weather, and income growth. Upon examination, if the trends in housing stock and energy use between 1990 and 2001 continue, more large housing units household will be build as well as a continued growth in the purchase of appliances for use within the homes. Additional population growth in the South Census Region and the corresponding use of central air conditioning will continue to push up demand—especially the demand for electricity.