Predictive Power of Role-play Simulations in Political Science: Experience of an e-Learning tool

摘要

This paper examines the potential of role-play simulations for the prediction of political events. It examines the Fablusi tool and the pedagogy used to generate these simulations in the Political Science Department at the University of Melbourne and elsewhere, compares it to the CASCON tool used for research and pedagogy at MIT and puts these tools in the context of the impact of the ICT revolution on modelling reality.The paper argues that role-play simulations, viewed as collaborative thought experiments, enable analysts to examine scenarios that may not seem realistic at the time but which later prove otherwise. It provides examples that seem to predict future events and situations from 9 simulations run between 2000 and 2002, it raises questions about these results and attempts to provide a tentative explanation for them. The paper concludes by suggesting that only when relinquishing the quest for realism in the analysis of the political that one begins to catch a glimpse of political reality.