Theory of Reliability Analysis and Its Application in Construction Risk Management

摘要

The state of the art of reliability analysis for construction systems is investigated. It is pointed out that most of the current research has its limitation in that it was only carried out for a specific goal or management problem. Starting from the theory of system engineering, this paper defines the concept of reliability for the construction system, which is different from the reliability of structural design but closely related to it, and presents the relationship between "Goal Subsystem" and "Procedure Subsystem", taking into account of the features of construction practice. Thereafter, the computational algorithm of the reliability analysis for the "Goal Subsystem" and "Procedure Subsystem" is proposed, and the approaches for improving the system reliability are explored as well. The paper also presents the classification of reliability levels and its relationship with construction risk management. Finally this paper discusses the possibility of the future application of the reliability theory in construction risk management.