THE ZEPHYR-PROJECT THE NEXT GENERATION PREDICTION SYSTEM

摘要

Zephyr is the next generation short-term wind farm production prediction system. It merges the knowledge and expertise obtained by Riso and IMM from their two present, state-of-the-art, systems: Prediktor and WPPT. Both these systems have long track records of use, stability and good performance. The model built into Zephyr takes input from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model (HIRLAM of the Danish Meteorological Institute in the present implementation), from on-line meter readings from selected wind farms and from monthly reported meter readings from a wider range of wind farms. As a consequence of the diverse input, the model in Zephyr is dual stringed. The model is described in more detail in another paper at this conference. The reasons why it has been found necessary to develop a new system are twofold: To combine the two existing systems into a third, which is expected to perform better than the two previous systems. To take advantage of the newest technologies, with the use of a Java client implementation, which communicates via the Internet. Zephyr is expected to be ready by the middle of 2002. The project is funded by the Danish Ministry of Environment and Energy, and has Riso and IMM as the system development team, DMI as the NWP forecast provider, and Elsam, Eltra, Elkraft and SEAS as the electrical utility partners.