THE DYNAMICAL BEHAVIOUR OF GUSTS

摘要

By means of stochastic tools we describe wind gusts in a probabilistic way. In this sense gusts are defined as velocity changes over short time intervals. We show evidence that the phenomenon of gusts is strongly connected to the well known intermittent statistics of fully developed turbulence, i.e. anomalous high probability of finding high velocity fluctuations. As a further characteristic we investigate the waiting times statistics of successive wind gusts. Most interestingly we find power law statistics indicating scaling or self similar properties. On the basis of these statistics a forecast becomes difficult or even impossible. Furthermore we present in this contribution an approach how to extract stochastic models from measured time series. As an application stochastic modeling of power output of wind turbines will be presented.