COMPARING TWO ALTERNATIVE POLLUTANT DISPERSION MODELS AND ACTUAL DATA WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH INFORMATION PROCESSING SYSTEM (EHIPS)

摘要

This paper presents the test results for an air pollutant dispersion modelling unit working within a larger software system EHIPS designed for environmental health information processing. We start with the description of the whole system and then proceed to the modelling unit, which uses two standard dispersion models - one Russian (OND-86) and one American (ISC3ST). The peculiarity of this unit is just in its links to other components of the system, which opens the way to multifold usage of the modelling results, including easy comparison between the model and the data obtained from actual measurements. We compare the two models and actual measurements on the basis of a one-year data set obtained in an industrial city (Cherepovets, RF). The overall agreement between all three may be characterised as satisfactory. Our interest lies primarily in analysing the dependence of discrepancies between the models and between models and data as a function of pollutant, time, etc. We also discuss the influence of expected deficiencies in pollutant source data on accuracy of modelling. We try to draw lessons for interpreting the risk assessment figures obtained through modelling.