The problem of risk evaluation for floods overflowing levees was formulated taking into consideration hydrologic and hydraulic uncertainties. It was solved using the AFOSM method. The advantage of this approach over direct integration method is that it does not require an assumption for the PDF of conveyance. However, in this case such an assumption is necessary for basic variables. Example calculations were performed for the simplest probability distributions of basic variables: triangular and uniform. Analysis of results indicates sensitivity of risk to these distributions and the importance of proper choice of them. Finally, the performance of the method was estimated taking into account the number of iterations. In both variants, three iterations were sufficient to find the location of expansion point on the failure surface for which reliability index took minimum value. Further studies should concern collection of information on the actual PDFs of basic variables and examination of their influence on the risk of flood levee overflowing.
展开▼
机译：制定了溢流堤防洪水风险评估问题，考虑了水文和液压不确定因素。使用AFOSM方法解决了它。这种方法通过直接积分方法的优点是它不需要对传送的PDF的假设。然而，在这种情况下，这种假设是基本变量所必需的。为最简单的基本变量分布执行示例计算：三角形和均匀。 Analysis of results indicates sensitivity of risk to these distributions and the importance of proper choice of them.最后，考虑到迭代的数量，估计该方法的性能。在两个变体中，三个迭代足以找到膨胀点的位置对可靠性指数所花费的最小值。进一步的研究应涉及关于基本变量实际PDF的信息以及对洪水溢出风险的影响。
展开▼
