We anticipate a decrease of 1.5 million metric tons in internationally traded molasses during 2000 while world demand holds constant. This results in world supply and demand in balance. Recent increases in world molasses prices have resulted in increases in U.S. prices from the very low molasses prices of the past year with some continued strengthening into the last quarter of 2000. Large supplies of alternative liquid by-products in the U.S. will place a ceiling on molasses price increases in the U.S. Due to reduced U.S. production capacity, nitrogen production has decreased resulting in significant price increases in feed urea. Phosphorus capacity has also been decreased, but at the time of writing this paper, prices appear to be stable in the short term with modest increases in 2001.
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