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Using the Sieve Bootstrap Method in Time Series Analysis

机译:在时间序列分析中使用筛子引导方法

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We consider using bootstrap method for stationary time series problems concerned with prediction intervals for future observations and confidence intervals for the spectral density. Our approach relies on the sieve bootstrap procedure introduced by Buhlmann (1996, 1997) for stationary AR(∞) processes. We extend the method of obtaining prediction intervals which has been proposed by Stine (1987) for autoregressive time series of known order and compare it with more traditional Gaussian strategy. The introduced sieve-bootstrap approach for constructing confidence intervals for the spectrum is also compared with χ~2 approximation method and other bootstrap procedure proposed by Franke and Hardle (1992). The accuracy of the presented methods is verified via numerical comparison including both Gaussian and non-Gaussian data.
机译:我们考虑使用对静止时间序列问题的引导方法与预测间隔相关的,用于将来的观察分隔和频谱密度的置信区间。我们的方法依赖于Buhlmann(1996,1997)为静止的AR(∞)流程引入的筛选引导程序。我们扩展了获得由STINE(1987)提出的预测间隔的方法,用于了解已知订单的自回归时间序列,并将其与更传统的高斯战略进行比较。还将引入的筛引导方法与Franke和Hardle提出的χ〜2近似方法和其他引导程序(1992)进行了相比,用于构建频谱的置信间隔。通过数值比较验证所提出的方法的准确性,包括高斯和非高斯数据。

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