Regional Economic and Demographic Forecasting with a REMI Model

摘要

The REMI model is a structural model that captures the cause and effect relationships within any region or regions modeled. With a structural model it is possible to generate an internally consistent forecast that captures all of the interactions in the local economy. In practical terms this means that the maximum amount of local information can be brought to bear on the forecast. For example, a full cohort survival population model that includes age, gender and ethnic categories can be combined with a sophisticated economic migration forecast. The economic migration forecast can, in turn, depend upon the expected earnings in the area relative to expected earnings in the average in the U.S. The presentation includes an explanation of the basic structure of the model. This structure involves: output; labor and capital demand; population and labor supply; wages, prices and profits; and market shares. It also explains how detailed industry predictions are made using a detailed U.S. forecast as well as a detailed interaction in the local economy and the economies of other regions in a multi-regional model. These interactions include transportation among industries, consumption by category, investment by type, government spending and export by industry. The next topic covered is how forecasts can be fine tuned and how alternative forecasts can be generated. Finally, the ways that the economic forecast can be used as the key input to generate emission inventory forecasts are discussed.