The Applicability of Atmospheric Forecast Data (Perceived Truth) That is Consistent with and Correlated with Atmospheric Instance Data (Ground Truth) for Simulations - A Future Piece of the Front-End Process to the SNE Conceptual Reference Model

摘要

Models of military operations depend on interaction with environmental instance data (ground truth) to determine simulation outcomes. A corollary to the need for the ground truth data is that some simulations also need forecast data (perceived truth). Perceived truth data are needed when humans or human-behavior objects base decisions on perceptions of future battlefield conditions. Normally, perceived truth must follow logically from a simulation's ground truth and there are three basic methods that can be used to provide it. One method uses a numerical weather prediction model to generate perceived truth, a second uses variations of ground truth, and the third uses climatology. The value of perceived truth in any simulation depends on the "mind-set" of the decision-maker (humans or human-behavior objects). In some cases, forecasts have little value. This can occur when the decision-maker wants to learn or train without serious complications introduced by weather. This is a legitimate objective in some cases. It can also occur when the decision-maker plans to fly every sortie possible in order to take out enemy targets as quickly as possible. At those times operating effectiveness is important, but the cost of operating is not. In other cases, forecasts can have great value. This occurs when operating efficiency is important or desirable, or operating cost is a factor. In some cases, no-skill persistence forecasts could be used to determine "what's the worst I can do?" or perfect forecasts would answer the question "what's the best I can do?" Thus, it's possible for the simulation user to ask for and use perceived truth data in ways contrary to those in which the environmentalist expects them to be used. What's best for your simulation? It depends... but you do have choices.