Inter-fiber competition: cotton's declining market share in China

摘要

After two decades of rapid development, China has emerged as the world's largest producer of chemical fiber. Consumption of chemical fiber has also grown rapidly, finally overtaking cotton in 1997. The share of cotton in total fiber consumption hasdeclined from 83 percent in 1982 to about 40 percent in recent years. As a result, cotton consumption increased only slightly, while total fiber consumption increased more than 120 percent in the last two decades. With increased income and improved market accessibility, China has changed from a net cotton exporter to a net cotton importer since 1989. As China moves closer to joining the WTO, it is important to gain a better understanding of the competition between the two main inputs into China's textile industry. This paper examines China's chemical fiber and cotton production and availability, identifies the factors responsible for the decline in the cotton share, and quantifies the impact of these factors in order to provide a better understanding of China's current cotton and man-made fiber consumption and the likely future trends of cotton consumption and trade.