Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Power Grids and Its Wider Implications on National Security

摘要

We discuss our technosocial analytics research and development on predicting and assessing the impact of climate change on U.S. power-grids and the wider implications for national security. The ongoing efforts extend cutting-edge modeling theories derived from climate, energy, social sciences, and national security domains to form a unified system coupled with an interactive visual interface for technosocial analysis. The goal of the system is to create viable future scenarios that address both technical and social factors involved in the model domains. These scenarios enable policymakers to formulate a coherent, unified strategy towards building a safe and secure society. The paper gives an executive summary of our preliminary efforts in the past year and provides a glimpse of our work planned for the second year of a multi-year project1 being conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.