Per-contact Probabilities of Heterosexual Transmission of HIVEstimated from Partner Study Data

摘要

The probability with which the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is trans-mitted from an infected to a susceptible individual during the course of oneor more unprotected sexual contacts plays an important role in models of theAIDS epidemic. Several studies found no association between the numberof contacts with a given partner and transmission, and some modellers havetherefore preferred to use transmission rates per partnership rather than percontact. However, an analysis of data from the California Partners' Study(Padian et al. 1990) indicated the presence of an association, although notconsistent with a constant probability of transmission per contact. Simi-lar data from a European study have been analyzed to investigate furtherthe relationship between the number of unprotected sexual contacts and theprobability of transmission of HIV.