Non-slowing economic growth rate of inflation (NSEGRI): regression modelling

摘要

The paper provides modeling of nonlinear relationship between the GDP growth and inflation rate for a long-run period of the US economy. The adequate models using dummy variables were obtained for several middle-run periods including the recessionary one. The envelope curve approximating long-run movement of extreme points in the phase plane was obtained using the partial middle-run models. The study provides an efficient diagnostic tool of the economy's current state and an instrument of forecasting its future trajectory.