TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPPING AND ROADMAPS IN A CONTEXT OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

摘要

The current technology roadmapping theory is typically based on third generation innovation models of the 1970s that couple linear models of technology push and market pull. There are incremental improvements to this field although the original philosophy on technology roadmapping and technology roadmaps is still prevailing. Unfortunately, the current technology roadmapping framework doesn't address sixth generation innovation models where there are complex interactions at a systemic level. This paper presents a conceptual framework for the technology roadmapping process and technology roadmap development for developing countries. The framework addresses the gaps in technology roadmapping and technology roadmap theory for technology catch-up strategies. It is derived from the literature on technology roadmaps' format and purpose; technology roadmapping processes; transition management and complex systems theory. The framework proposes the need for transition orientated technology roadmaps in case of developing countries and technology catch-up strategies. These types of roadmaps initially focus on nurturing several niche innovations, with emerging technologies as the major form of technology areas. Through technology roadmap review and updates, the promising niche innovations are selected for upscaling. The paper seeks to encourage wider adoption of technology roadmaps as a technology planning tool by firms and governments in developing countries. The literature on other technology planning and analysis tools such as technology foresighting have started to focus on customised frameworks for developing countries, although this gap has not been addressed from a technology roadmapping perspective. Further work is planned in future for testing and validation of this proposed framework.