An Interactive Study on the Exchange Rate of RMB, Real Interest Rate and Real Estate Price Fluctuation

摘要

In the process of our country gradually expanding the degree of opening to the outside world, promoting the interest rate market and improving the real estate market, the study on the interactive relationship among RMB exchange rate, the real interest rate and the price of real house price is important. In this paper, the TVP-SV-VAR model is used to analyze the dynamic relationship between the three of them with the data from February 2015 to February 2008. The research results show that: the interaction between the RMB exchange rate, the real interest rate and the house price is time-varying, which has different influence on the different environment and backgrounds. Based on the interactive relationship between the three and its impact on China's financial stability, the paper puts forward that enhance the independence of monetary policy, weaken the money supply effect with the RMB appreciation, diversify financing channels, weaken the housing prices on bank credit amplification, and the establish pricing mechanism of market interest rate and other policy recommendations.