Impacts of built environment and emerging green technologies on daily transportation greenhouse gas emissions in Quebec cities: a disaggregate modeling approach

摘要

This paper aims at investigating the impact of the built environment (BE) and emerging technologies on household level, transport-related greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Trip-level GHG emissions are estimated combining origin-destination (OD) survey, vehicle fleet and transit ridership data. A simultaneous equation model framework is then implemented to investigate the link between the BE, socio-demographics, and transport-related GHGs. The effect of fuel efficiency scenarios on the bus and motor-vehicle fleet is determined and investigated using an econometric approach that takes into account residential self-selection. Also, the potential impact of emerging green technologies (introduction of hybrid buses and fuel efficient cars) is determined and compared to those relating to BE initiatives in the different cities. Our findings are consistent with the literature. More specifically we have found that built environment (BE) attributes have a statistically significant effect on GHG emissions. For instance, a 10% increase in population density will result in 3.5%, 1.5% and 1.4% reduction in Montreal, Quebec and Sherbrooke, respectively. Also, household GHGs are importantly associated with socio-demographic characteristics such as number of full-time and part-time workers, income, presence of retirees and children with positives and negative effects. . Moreover, average GHGs and elasticities among neighborhoods are much greater than those observed across cities. This highlights the importance of neighborhood impacts by combined BE indicators. In terms of the technological impacts, it is found that by replacing the transit fleet by electric trains and hybrid buses in Montreal, the share of transit GHGs would decrease by 32%; however, this reduction will be marginal in the overall emissions – a similar situation is observed in the other two cities. With respect to the private motor-vehicle fleet, if current fuel efficiency trends persist, the constant improvement of car fuel consumption economy would reduce GHGs by 7% (Montreal), 5% (Quebec City) and 8% (Sherbrooke) by the year 2020. According to our results, the only the combined effect of BE strategies and private-motor vehicle technological changes would have significant reductions on emissions in the short term.