Large-Scale Explosion Consequence Modeling: West, Texas Fertilizer Plant Case Study

摘要

The West, Texas Fertilizer Company plant explosion on April 17, 2013 has highlighted the number of similar facilities whose potential hazards had been previously overlooked in part due to limited government and small-industry resources. This paper presents a preliminary case study of the event using BREEZE ExDAM (Explosion Damage/Injury Assessment Model), and examines the utility of such a model for quantifying these overlooked hazards. BREEZE ExDAM is a software tool designed to perform explosion consequence modeling (ECM) using a phenomenological approach which is computationally more sophisticated than simple blast radius methods and computationally less sophisticated than physical modeling methods (e.g. CFD). Damage/injury levels of different structure/people types are derived from structure material properties and peak incident pressures/impulses adjusted for shielding effects using a dipole flow-field algorithm. Such a tool might provide cost-sensitive local governments and smaller industrial facilities with a comparatively simple but meaningful tool for assessing the risks posed by a West-style incident. The methodology used in this case study, to quantify peak incident pressures and subsequent damage/injury levels while accounting for different structural materials and shielding effects, is discussed. Predicted damage/injury patterns are compared to publicly-available information. The particular strengths and weaknesses of the ExDAM model are discussed and compared to CFD models.