Effect of carbon mitigation measures in China:Study based on TIMES model

摘要

Rapid economy development in China has led to growing demands for better air quality and human welfare.The interaction between carbon mitigation and local pollutant reduction measures is always ignored.This paper presents an assessment of environmental effect in transportation sector.Based on China-TIMES model,we designed four scenarios describe future energy strategies: business-as-usual(BAU)scenario,speeding up elimination of the yellow standard car(EPM)scenario,new technology promotion and fuel economy standard upgrade(TPS)scenario and fuel tax scenario(FTAX).Results show us that the EPM scenario and TPS scenario have better continuously mitigation affect both for carbon and local pollutant reduction.And the EPM scenario helps to utilize the transportation structure most.For the local pollutants co-benefits,the results show that EPM and FTAX scenario have better co-benefits than other scenarios.But all the mitigation measured set on carbon mitigation have better co-benefit potential on environment.For transportation sector which has large co-benefit potential,co-benefits should be integrated into policy evaluation to promote the most effective mitigation policies.