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An Introduction to Multiple Structural Breaks Estimation with Minimum Description Length Approach

机译:具有最小描述长度方法的多个结构断裂估计的介绍

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There are ample evidences that economics time series are usually non-stationary over a long period of observation time. In many cases, the existence of non-stationarity is apparently due to the presence of structural breaks. Consequently, failure to detect 'shifts' or breaks might lead to a serious problem. Early researches on structural breaks focus on methods which were developed only for a single break by using historical and sequential test such as CUSUM test and the sequential test statistics. Recent development considers cases with multiple structural breaks based on the model selection approach. This paper revisits the method of estimating the number of breaks and the problem of model selection using Minimum Description Length (MDL) with Genetic Algorithm (GA) as an optimization approach to search for the best fitting model. The effectiveness and the implementation of this approach will be illustrated by using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model.
机译:有足够的证据表明经济时间序列通常都是非平稳过度的观察很长一段时间。在许多情况下,非平稳的存在显然是由于结构突变的存在。因此,没有检测到“转变”或断裂可能导致一个严重的问题。上结构突变早期的研究主要集中在其上使用的历史和连续测试,如测试CUSUM和顺序测试统计只开发了一个休息的方法。最近的发展将认为其与基于模型的选择方法多结构突变的情况。本文重访估计符的数量和模型选择的使用具有遗传算法(GA)最小描述长度(MDL),为优化方法来搜索最佳拟合模型问题的方法。的有效性和该方法的实施将利用广义自回归条件异(GARCH)模型来说明。

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