Assessing the damming effects on runoff using a multiple linear regression model: A case study of the Manwan Dam on the Lancang River

摘要

The Lancang River in Yunnan Province, with a length of 1170 km and a 1780-m drop from northwest to southeast, is the most controversial river in southwest China because 14 cascade hydropower stations have been planned on the main waterway. The Manwan Dam, the first of the 14 dams, began operating in 1993, and the associated downstream runoff may have been affected by its construction. To assess this impact, we first investigated the relationships between monthly runoff observed from the Gajiu station and meteorological data obtained from four meteorological gauging stations with a time-lag of 0-3 months over the pre-dam period (1957-2000). Second, we established and validated a multiple linear regression equation employing monthly meteorological and hydrological data during the pre-dam period. Finally, we simulated the monthly runoff after dam construction (1993-2000) using the established equations and assessed the impact of dam construction on runoff by comparing the observed actual monthly runoff with the simulated monthly runoff. Our results suggested a very high hydro-meteorological correlation for the pre-dam period, which opened up the possibility of runoff forecasting. Further, the multiple linear regression equation displayed good simulation performance as coefficient of determination (R2) and the Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient (NS) reached 0.84 and 0.82 respectively. By comparing the observed and the predicted monthly runoff, we found that construction of the Manwan Dam caused a visible disturbance on monthly runoff that, with the disturbance value, displayed a multi-peak fluctuation of up-down variation in the annual hydrologic regime circle.