RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN TIMES – ANALYSIS OF MODELLING APPROACHES AND IMPACTS ON ENERGY POLICY

摘要

The TIMES energy system model has been used for informing energy and climate change policies in several countries and regions around the world. The type and scope of the studies varies, but many works consider (at least briefly) energy efficiency in their findings. However, very few include explicit energy efficiency scenarios and/or direct analysis of energy efficiency improvements. Certainly, many TIMES studies mention energy efficiency as part of the strategies to achieve other outcomes (e.g. decarbonisation scenarios), but without explicitly measuring it in model runs. From the studies that measure energy efficiency improvements (involving technological change, not behavioral change), most cases report them as a sub product of other type of scenarios, such as emission reduction, renewable energy penetration or technology adoption cases. Lastly, few studies consider explicit energy efficiency scenarios, in some cases in combination with other type of scenarios such as emission reduction targets. Moreover, these studies have shown significant differences on the modelling approach and it has been recognised in (Blesl et al., 2007) and (Rosnes et al., 2017) that the model used and the approach taken considerably affect the results, potentially affecting policy decisions as well. Nonetheless, a direct comparison between energy efficiency modelling approaches in TIMES has not been developed yet. The work developed in this paper aims to provide insight on this issue, analysing the implications of different energy efficiency modelling approaches in TIMES, and discussing best practices on informing energy efficiency policy.