A Novel Approach to Estimate the Gap Between the Middle- and Short-Term Plans

摘要

In almost all copper mining companies, mine planning is done considering different time frames, leading to long-term (life-of-mine) (LOM), medium-term (fi rst three years) and short-term (fi rst year, monthly, weekly, and up to daily plans). Shorter term plans are usually associated with more abundant information, hence models with lower uncertainty. However, they capture more of the variability found on the geological attributes. In long-term models, usually estimation methods tend to hide this variability, providing smoothed interpretations. Medium and long-term plans consider average values for the parameters and optimisation techniques are applied aimed at maximising the economic profi t. Short-term plans, on the other hand, are made to comply with the medium-term promises, maximising the use of the available resources (equipment and processing capacities) and dealing with the variability not characterised in the previous planning stages. This generates an important gap between the short-term and the medium and long-term plans. A case study was made using an important oxide copper mine, where the variability found in the short-term plan has a large impact in the productive process, thus reducing the daily ore grade variability is an important goal. In this paper, this planning issue is addressed by creating mediumterm mine plans using mixed integer programming which are compared using the output of a simulation of the daily extraction that is aimed at satisfying the daily constraints of the processing plant, the availability of mining equipment and the variability of ore grade. The result shows the expected gap between these mine planning processes, which suggests correcting some of the parameters used in future medium and long-term plans.