(00092)A Comparison between the Past and Future Expected Wind Conditions in the European Coastal Environment of the Mediterranean Sea

摘要

In the last years, exploitation of the wind power has been constantly increasing together with the size of the turbines. Furthermore, by 2030 wind energy is expected to supply around 30% of EU's power demand. Offshore wind represents a significant future opportunity, since resources are abundant and more stable. In the North and Baltic seas more experience is gained on bottom fixed turbines, but also many initiatives emerge to accelerate the development of floating devices, such as the projects in the Mediterranean and Atlantic. From this perspective, the objective of this work is to analyze the expected dynamics of the of the wind conditions in the European coastal environment of the Mediterranean Sea. The study is focused on estimating the average and extreme wind speeds for the 30-year time interval 2021-2050. In parallel, an analysis of the historical wind data for the 30-year period 1976-2005 is also performed. The climatic wind fields provided by the Global Change Assessment Model are considered in the analysis under the Representative Concentration Pathway scenario 4.5. This is the most probable scenario and assumes that the CO2 emissions will increase until 2040 and then decline.