Development Policy Analysis in Mali: Sustainable Growth Prospects

摘要

In the context of the implementation of the second-generation poverty reduction strategy (CSLP II) in Mali, we investigate the country's development potential, within existing resource constraints. We apply an integrated, resource-based approach to growth, implemented through a system-dynamics-based national development planning model. Scenario analysis indicates that the policy orientation of the CSLP II might foster growth in the long run, but, even in our most optimistic scenario, the government's stated growth and development goals are unlikely to be achieved. Our results highlight the importance of endogenous growth mechanisms for sustainable development, and the significance for economic performance of the major delays involved in the accumulation of the resources that are necessary for growth. We believe that our approach contributes to the most commonly used tools for medium-long term planning by providing a dynamic perspective on the key resources for growth and on the constraints to the country's development.